Klaus Denkmayr, Arnold Hanslmeier, Peter Weiß,
"Longterm prediction of solar activity using the combined method"
, in Solar Physics, Vol. 184, Seite(n) 213-218, 1999, K. Denkmayr, A. Hanslmeier, P. Weiß: Longterm prediction of solar activity using the combined method, Solar Physics 184 (1999), 213-218.
Original Titel:
Longterm prediction of solar activity using the combined method
Sprache des Titels:
Englisch
Original Kurzfassung:
The Combined Method is a non-parametric regression technique for long-term prediction of smoothed monthly sunspot numbers. Starting from a solar minimum, a prediction of the succeeding maximum is obtained by using a dynamo-based relation between the geomagnetic aa index and succeeding solar maxima. Then a series of predictions is calculated by computing the weighted average of past cycles of similar level. This technique leads to a good prediction performance, particularly in the ascending phase of the solar cycle where purely statistical methods tend to be inaccurate. For cycle 23 the combined method predicts a maximum of 160 (in terms of smoothed sunspot number) early in the year 2000.
Sprache der Kurzfassung:
Englisch
Journal:
Solar Physics
Volume:
184
Seitenreferenz:
213-218
Erscheinungsjahr:
1999
Notiz zum Zitat:
K. Denkmayr, A. Hanslmeier, P. Weiß: Longterm prediction of solar activity using the combined method, Solar Physics 184 (1999), 213-218.
Anzahl der Seiten:
6
Reichweite:
international
Publikationstyp:
Aufsatz / Paper in sonstiger referierter Fachzeitschrift
Forschungs-