Practical Verification of CLT Assumption for PERT Application
Sprache des Vortragstitels:
8th International Scientific Conference on Project Management in the Baltic Countries
Sprache des Tagungstitel:
One of the assumptions in PERT is the possibility to apply central limit theorem (CLT) to approximate path duration times with standard normal distribution. However, CLT presumes certain conditions in order to be correctly applied. This issue is often not adressed in related literature. The aim of this paper is to examine the conditions under which PERT can accordingly be applied. We consider the conditions and aspects of their practical application in order to verify the admissibility of CLT for given activity time distributions. Lindeberg-Feller condition turned out to be the simplest technique to verify
that results of a PERT analysis are free from problematic CLT application. We also summarize other issues with current probabilistic project evaluation and propose a chance constraint optimization model
for probabilistic project analysis.